Criminology Research Project Inc.

It’s somewhat premature to actually classify Joran van der Sloot a serial killer or serial sexual preditor however the evidence is overwelmingly leaning in this direction.  To use a well worn common phrase, “If it looks, quacks, and walks like a duck…….”   In van der Sloot’s case he’s close to being a duck.

For starters we know there exists two cases involving this young man that have similar “signatures.”  The first that we know of is that of missing Mountain Brook, Alabama, teenager Natalee Holloway in 2005.  The second most recently know case is that of the 21 year-old lima woman, Stephany Flores, who van der Sloot met met, according to police, while playing poker at a Peru casino.

In the criminal profile business we look for similarities between three or more crimes, not all of which must be murders.  I will admit that, so far, there are only two, not three, similar incidences but the evidence is mounting at a rapid pace.

The May 30, 2005, incident involving Natalee Holloway comes exactly five years to the day before the killing of Miss Flores which, within itself is somewhat of a “signature.”  I will admit that five years between the first and second is a rather longer than usual period of time but then, again, we are drawing a conclusion based on cases we know about.  There are probably similar cases involving this young Dutchman that we don’t know about…I will almost “bet the farm” that there are.

You may be asking, “What are these similarities?”  For starters, both young girls are known to have been in the company of van der Sloot.  Also, both Miss Holloway and Miss Gamboa went with van der Sloot, from a public to a private location.   Adding to our “duck theory” is the fact that both victims were female and students.

I’m not prepared just yet to brand Van der Sloot “serial: but I’m close.  Generally, criminology and criminal justice professionals prefer to have a minimum of three “signature” cases before applying the term to an individual but, for the same of common sense, I’ll do it now.  My “gut feeling” is that there are more cases we have yet to become aware.

The young Dutchman seems, for the time being, to have gotten away with his “whatever” with Miss Holloway but, again, the Fat Lady has not sung on this first know case quite yet.  I feeling is that more and more evidence will surface connecting Van der Sloot to Miss Holloway’s disappearance.  I don’t know this to be a fact to to actually come out and say that that I do would be misleading.

I do tend to believe that certain circumstances, political in nature, kept Van der Sloot from being arrested in a timely fashion for the Holloway disappearance but in the case of Miss Flores I doubt politics will protect him in this case.  It certainly appears that this is the case.

Individuals tend to have an urge, let’s call it a need, to brag about their criminal ventures; Van der Sloot did just this relative to Miss Hollowayby admiting that he had killer her.  He has now admitted that he killed this second known victim in Peru.  He then, in both cases, retracts his “I did it” statements which is, again, somewhat of a “signature.”  To admit and then deny is seen very often just as it was in the case of the murder for hire of Dr. Jack Wilson in his Huntsville, Alabama, home by James Dennison White.  White actually confessed, then denied a number of times.

Van der Sloot’s problem is that vander Sloot was specific in he statements.  He, in fact, said, “I did not want to do it.  The girl intructe into my private life.  She had no right.  She was scared, we argued, she tried to escapt and I grabber her by the neck kand hit her.”  This statement, whether, later contradicted by the Dutchman or not is backed by video footabel of the two entering his hotel room in the early hours of Saturday, May 30th.  Van del Sloot left four hour later after he had paid the hotel in advance for another two weeks’ stay and made a request that hotel workers not go into the room.  He then paid a cab driver something like $600 to drive him to Chile. 

Human nature, as odd as it may be, says that guilty persons talk about their crimes.  But, then again innocent persons confess to crimes they didn’t commit on a regular basis especially in high profile cases.  The Atlanta Child Murder cases brought over 1,000 confessions alone all of which came from those within the “lunatic fringe.”  This is why a confession along is not enough for a conviction.  Simply put, people confess to crimes they don’t commit!  This trick, however, is not now available to van der Sloot—it’s the video!

In van der Sloot’s case, however, this evidence supporst his so-called confession and, believe me, this won’t be ignored by justice officials.  He may be, and is, in another country but the budding signature follows.  There are, afterall, ducks in every country and the same duck is known to travel interjurisdictional.

Having said all of this, what happens now?  I’m no mind reader but it’s my prediction that van der Sloot will “go down” on this one and other similar cases will surface.  This time the young Dutchman is “in the sights” of the criminal justice system and these professional dare not allow him to escape where he was, what he did, and how he did it.  Politics being what it is will most definitely prevent this.

We must move slowly, wait a time with patience, but my prediction is that there are other similar crimes that will be attributed to van der Sloot before this investigation is over.  The investigation(s) are no where close to termination, in fact, they have only begun.

I don’t always agree with my counterparts within the criminal justice system and don’t hesitate to say it when I feel it to be the truth.  However, in the cases involving Joran van der Sloot, it’s my prediction that there’s more to come and we have, in fact, only seen the tip of the iceberg.

We don’t know where Miss Holloway’s body is, or shall I say that ‘publically” we don’t.  A common practice is to retain a certain amount of evidence from media to maintain the ability to sort out the absessed that are innocent but who “need” to confess from the actual perpertrators.  I’m not connected to either of the cases at hand personally or professionaly but I’ve been around long enough to konow there’s more evidence than is know to the general public.

Joran van der Sloot is in Peru custody this time, not that of Aruba, and the cards are not stacked in his favor this time.  He’s currently at police headquarters being questioned in the death of the 21 year old Miss Jose Gamboa and this is where he is likely to remain.”

The signatures,  unique criminal patterns, don’t change very often from serial to serial and they haven’t with the Dutchman.  This is not to say that such has never been the case but it’s extremely rare.  It’s certainly a statistical probability that van der Sloot hasn’t make such a change—he’s just not this smart.

Is van det Sloot a serial murderer?  Well, he’s a serial sexual preditor for sure and could be a serial murderer no doubt.  Again, it a “wait a time with patience” situation one that is sure to bring about additional similar cases in the not to distant future.

I’m not in a position to classify anyone as anything on an official basis but I am willing to go as far as say that the officials have their man in both the Holloway and Flores cases.

Finally, van der Sloot, this time arund, is being represented by state-appointed attorneys which, within itself, speaks volumes.  Van det Sloot’s time has come…he will be convicted…and for what little consolation there can be for the victim’s families he will be dealt with appropriately.

This defendant is far from being out of the woods in fact, he’s just getting started witin the system.  As for how long his crime spree has been in existence, who knows?  My prediction is that he been doing his dasterdly deeds for quite a while the spread of five years between the first and second is too long an interval to be realistic.

We’ll all keep watching and Criminology Research Project, Inc., will keep reporting.  Stay tuned!

Dr. Edward Blackwlder

Executive Director